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Steve Byrnes's avatar

I think we should be optimistic about things that will probably turn out well, and pessimistic about things that will probably turn out poorly, and in either case, we should proactively try to make things turn out better than they otherwise would, including via engineering.

Thinking about AI risk is like thinking about how a bridge might collapse. People building bridges do indeed think about how the bridge might collapse. And if they come up with a good answer, then they try to change the design so it won't collapse. And if they can't find any way to do that, then they don't build the bridge at all. Is that "pessimistic"? I dunno. But it’s certainly what bridge-builders have always done, and it’s what they should do!

The problem with Germany's anti-nuclear movement is not that they were opposed to a technology per se, but rather that they were opposed to a technology FOR DUMB REASONS. People also opposed leaded gasoline and CFCs and pouring toxic chemicals into rivers, but in those cases, they were right to do so. If the laser had never been invented, that would have been bad. If fentanyl had never been invented, that would have been good. Etc.

De-growthers tend to be economically illiterate—for example, they often assume that the world is zero sum, and all our nice things are directly plundered from the environment, and therefore if GDP goes up, then evidently we must be plundering the environment that much faster. We should counteract this idea, not because it’s pessimistic per se, but because it’s complete nonsense.

So what does “optimism” mean? If it means “things will probably turn out well”, then you’re advocating that we choose the answer before examining the data, and I suggest that you spend some time on this awesome new website https://www.c4r.io/ 😛 If it means “we should proactively try to make things better than they otherwise would, including via engineering”, then yeah I’m all for it, but that’s a confusing use of the word “optimism”. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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